Looking back at 2022

The year 2022 has been behind us for some time now. It was a year marked by significant changes in the housing market. At the beginning of 2022, there was still a housing frenzy, partly due to low mortgage rates. Afterwards, in February, the war broke out in Ukraine, and much changed. The mortgage rates rose significantly. In January, the lowest fixed-rate for 10 years stood at below 1%, while at its peak in November, the mortgage rate reached around 4.5%.

Our outlook for the housing market in 2023.

Over the past few months, there has been a significant decline in selling prices. From June 2022 until now, there has been a decrease of approximately 10%. This is not due to a decrease in demand, but rather because the affordability of a home has decreased as a result of higher mortgage rates. It’s difficult to predict whether the decline in house prices will continue in this trend.

This, combined with other policy regulations that may be implemented regarding mid-rental properties, could mean that there will be plenty of opportunities again for first-time buyers in the housing market. Nevertheless, there are fears of a housing crisis similar to that of 2008. Primarily, the new construction projects are not really taking off. Many housing projects offered for sale during the construction phase are significantly more expensive compared to the current housing market. As a result, many newly constructed homes remain unsold, and in some cases, projects are even canceled. Due to the decrease in housing prices, the difference in price per square meter between an existing home and a new construction home has increased to 1000 euros (in comparison, this difference was normally around 500 euros). Additionally, the rising mortgage interest rates are not helping with the sale of new construction homes. Buyers of new construction homes often still have rent or mortgage expenses during the construction period. Hence, people prefer to sell their own homes first before purchasing a new construction property.

The significant price difference between a new construction home and an existing property does offer opportunities for homeowners. An existing home is relatively much cheaper at the moment and thus becomes more attractive to buyers.

The figures comparing January 2022 to January 2023 are as follows:

The month of January has already passed. We have compiled the differences with the housing market of January 2022 for the Amsterdam region for you.

When comparing to January 2022, we see that in January 2023, significantly more homes and apartments have been put up for sale. However, we do observe a significant decrease in the number of sold homes and a similar decline in the number of sold apartments. This significant decline is not evident in the overall rental market; however, we do find a decrease in the number of rented homes and apartments priced below € 2,000. But notably, we observe an increase in the number of rented homes and apartments priced above € 2,000.